Get Robin Hanson on Dwarkesh Podcast

Prediction markets are exploding into the mainstream right now, and Robin Hanson literally wrote the playbook for them, from idea futures to inventing the LMSR pricing rule. In the past year regulators and markets have shifted, with the CFTC dropping its Kalshi appeal in May 2025 and a recent Nevada ruling igniting a new state versus federal battle as platforms scale.

As Robinhood leans in and prediction markets become a fast growing business, the stakes for how these markets are designed and governed could not be higher. Hanson’s contrarian clarity on incentives and market design is exactly what listeners need as election and sports event contracts test the boundaries of finance and gambling in early 2026.

He has been on Dwarkesh’s show before in August 2020, so this is the perfect moment to bring him back to pressure test how his ideas meet today’s legal and market reality. If you want timely, expert guidance on where this is heading, support this nomination today.